(MintPress)— In between talk of the economy, NASA and sugar subsidies, Monday night’s Republican presidential debate in Florida shined a faint light on the approach candidates will take on immigration policy in southern states with higher Latino populations.
Immigration wasn’t exactly a focal point in a debate where former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former House speaker Newt Gingrich spent the first half hour arguing over electability, but it was enough time for Romney to offer his self-deportation plan.
Florida is a bit of an anomaly when it comes to its demographics. Florida’s Hispanic and Latino residents account for 22.5 percent of the state’s entire population. Within that group lies the politically important dichotomy of traditionally Republican-voting Cuban Americans and the Democrat-leaning Puerto Ricans. The Cuban population, in particular, is unique to Florida: The 2010 U.S. Census shows 1.8 million Cubans in the U.S., with 1.2 million of them living in Florida.
Immigration may not be seen as a high-priority topic in Florida because Cubans can come to America and be granted residency after one year in accordance with the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966. Puerto Rico is a Commonwealth of the U.S., so its residents are already U.S. citizens.
The Cuban American population has been kind to the GOP in the past. In 2008, Barack Obama won the overall support of Florida’s Latino community, topping John McCain by winning 57 percent of the vote. However, McCain received 53 percent of the Cuban vote – falling in line with tradition.
However, it comes as no surprise that Monday night’s debate touched on U.S./Cuba relations. To court Florida’s Cuban population, candidates pined for the fall of Fidel Castro’s regime. Gingrich took it a step further, suggesting Casto would end up far away from Heaven and offered support for a “Cuban Spring” effort.
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Immigration to the forefront
Not all southern states, such as Texas, Arizona and California, will allow for such little talk over immigration. But traditional, hard-lined, aggressive talk on immigration policy may not bode well for GOP candidates in a country where Hispanics have been responsible for over half of the U.S. population increase in the last decade.
According to the Los Angeles Times, “about 75% of Hispanics live in the nine states that have long-standing Hispanic populations — Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York and Texas.”
Talk of border fences and making English the national language translates into a voter base that could be less-than-enthusiastic to vote Republican. A study conducted by a Vanderbilt political scientist Efren Perez showed that many Latinos feel tuned out when politicians make aggressive references to illegal information. The study says that even conservative-leaning Latinos shy away from Xenophobic rhetoric and compels them to more strongly attach themselves with their ethnic group and not with their political party.
Hispanics may have to choose whether actions are louder than words, however. The Pew Hispanic Center found Latino voters, despite dissatisfaction with deportation policies, favor Obama. The Obama administration is conducting an increasing number of deportations and
it has hurt his popularity, but his voter numbers appear safe.
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Traditionally democrats
The rapidly increasing Hispanic population raises questions about the future goals of the Republican party. In 2008, on a national scale, Obama garnered 67 percent of the Latino vote, while McCain brought in 31 percent.
Obama won all states with sizable Latino populations, easily winning in Florida, Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, California and Nevada. Other than currently campaigning in Florida, those are all states the Republican presidential candidates have to look forward to.
It is estimated that 21.5 million Latino citizen adults will be able to vote this November, an increase from the 19.5 million that were eligible in 2008. They will have to choose between a Republican party that favors strict borders and anti-immigration policies, or their Democrat incumbent that has already deported more Latinos than the previous administration.
Source: Mint Press