(NAMIBIA) MintPress- Threats of continued fighting and greater humanitarian crises are looming in the Central African Republic as President François Bozizé struggles to implement a peace deal made with rebel forces over the weekend in Liberville, Gabon.
One week has passed since the Seleka coalition, numbering roughly 1,000 rebel fighters, agreed to a ceasefire after managing to take control of two-thirds of the country since launching an insurgency in early December. Negotiations have paved the way for a unity government in the Central African Republic, where rebels have been fighting on and off against the Bozizé regime for the past decade.
While the Seleka coalition originally called for the disposal of President Bozizé, the Central African leader has managed to secure his position through 2016 in exchange for appointing a prime minister from the opposition. The rebels also agreed to vacate occupied towns in exchange for the repatriation of foreign troops.
Fighting has subsided for now, but the rebels say they could take up arms again if the government fails to enact the conditions of the agreement, including the withdrawal of foreign troops and the release of political prisoners being held by the government in the Central African Republic.
A long history of instability
François Misser, a French independent journalist and author of several books on Central Africa, cites the country’s long history of bad governance and instability as challenges to the implementation of the new peace deal.
“The country has a long story of bad governance,” Misser told MintPress. “Putting things on the right track is a long process.”
According to Misser, one of the reasons for the recent instability has been the failure of Bozizé’s government to fully disarm rebels following a 2008 peace agreement, which ended years of fighting that had erupted after Bozizé ousted former President Patassé in a 2003 coup.
Misser denotes bad governance, unwillingness to share power and a lack of funds for the inability of military forces to demobilize 10,000 rebels and ex-soldiers following the 2008 agreement. “The lack of training and the poor morale of the Central African army is an on-going problem,” said Misser.
Additionally, the Bozizé government has been unable to provide regular pay for civil servants or create sustainable job growth in the country. Despite significant mineral and resource deposits, the landlocked country remains one of the poorest countries in the world.
Reuters reported Seleka launched its insurgency while accusing the government of reneging on the previous peace deal, which had promised jobs and money to rebels who gave up their weapons. Some of the rebels’ primary demands in the current negotiations include job creation and the integration of rebels into the army.
A U.N. press release condemning any violations of the 2008 peace agreement stated in December that “frequent armed incursions by rebel elements from neighboring countries and the presence of members of the armed Ugandan group known as the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), have added to insecurity and instability in CAR, which also has 170,000 people displaced internally.”
The death of former President Patassé in 2011 and the disappearance in January 2010 of Col. Charles Massi, the leader of a rebel group in North-Eastern Central African Republic, also increased frustration and determination to overthrow the Bozizé regime. Supporters of Massi claim he was tortured to death after being handed over to Bangui authorities by Chadian soldiers.
Humanitarian crisis emerges from conflict
Decades of instability have taken a toll on the people living in the Central African Republic. The most recent fighting has reportedly resulted in a 27 percent increase in food prices in the capital city of Bangui.
Last week, Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) opened an emergency project in the country to address medical needs among the growing numbers of internally displaced people.
“The Central African population already suffers from some of the worst health indicators in the world, with alarming mortality rates even in peaceful times,” says Sylvain Groulx, an MSF coordinator in the country.
“Because of the recent instability, many people have been forced to displace themselves. An added burden is the fact that many local health facilities closed when medical staff fled into the bush. The few health posts that have remained open are either running out of basic essential medicines or, worse, had their stock completely looted.”
Across the country, humanitarian aid organizations are hoping for the best out of recent negotiations while dealing with the worst on the ground in the aftermath of recent fighting.
The International Committee of the Red Cross said in a press release, “Delegates from the ICRC are working hard to meet the most pressing needs of people affected by the clashes. They are also reminding the parties to the conflict in the area of their obligations under international humanitarian law.”
How long will peace last?
Robert Besseling, deputy head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis, sees two possible scenarios emerging from the current situation in Central Africa. “If Bozizé is successful and Seleka’s leadership fractures (an increasingly likely scenario), Seleka’s withdrawal from most of the captured territory is probable over the next three months,” said Besseling.
“If Bozizé fails to divide Seleka’s leadership, an advance on Bangui will become very likely — as will his removal by an army coup,” added Besseling.
While Bozizé has so far been able to walk down a third path through negotiations with Seleka’s leadership, neither of the other two scenarios are completely off the table.
As Misser explained to MintPress, running a unity government may prove difficult for newly appointed Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye. The rebels do not represent a homogeneous group. Some of the Seleka rebels were involved in the 2008 agreements, some are from new groups and some are sympathizers of Patassé.
“They come from different ethnic groups that sometimes fought against each other in the past. It will be difficult [for Tiangaye] to hold them together and all other stakeholders,” said Misser.
Additionally, Bozizé supporters have reportedly been chanting hate slogans toward Tiangaye, threatening his disposal in the same torturous way as late rebel Col. Massi.
Against this backdrop of instability, a divided opposition and poor governance, the real question remains: If Bozizé’s government was unable to stabilize rebels after the 2008 peace agreement, what makes him think he will succeed now? Until this question is answered, a real risk remains that the recently-brokered peace agreement will not succeed.