Ever since John Cabot attempted to discover the Northwestern Passage in 1497 as a direct route to China, the world has been fascinated in the possibilities the Arctic Circle may offer. One of the most inhospitable and desolate locales on the planet, the Circle — despite its promise as a shipping channel, a defensive strongpoint, and an oil and other natural resources repository — has only been a theoretical prospect.
In September, the Nordic Orion — a coal freighter bound for Finland — became the first commercial ship to successfully navigate the Canadian Northwest Passage. In light of this, the question of who exactly owns the Arctic has became a political hot potato. Canada claims the Northwest Passage as part of its internal waters, while the rest of the international community — including the United States — sees it as an international strait. The confluence of both Arctic and non-Arctic powers vying for the limited resources of this newly-opened frontier is destined to create a new wave of international infighting and bickering.
For example, China — which is not an Arctic nation — sent its first icebreaker to the Arctic Circle last year in an attempt to make a claim to the territory that is already being jostled by Canada, the United States, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. As reported by Ernst & Young, the Arctic region — as assessed by the United States Geological Survey — holds approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. This amounts to 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and as much as 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves. Russia’s recently announced plans to start oil extraction offshore in the Arctic has already drawn complaints and protests that the dangers of possible oil spills are not being adequately guarded against.
In addition, as the globe’s circumference at the Arctic is greatly less than that closer to the equator, Europe-Asia-North America sea transports are faster and cheaper if done via the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route. With as much as two weeks being shaved from Asia to Europe shipping routes, while currently not commercially viable, trans-arctic shipping may be the way of the future.
The United States has moved to protect its interests in this developing international struggle. On Friday, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel released the Pentagon’s “Arctic Strategy,” a comprehensive plan to protect the Arctic’s environment and prevent any further erosion of the polar cap while ensuring and safeguarding American security interests.
“As the Arctic changes, it creates new opportunities – and new challenges – that will shape the region for decades to come,” Hagel said last week in his keynote speech at the Halifax International Security Forum.
Hagel went on to say that while there will be more potential for tapping what may be as much as a quarter of the planet’s undiscovered oil and gas, a flood of interest in energy exploration has the potential to heighten tensions over other issues – even though most projected oil and gas reserves in the region are located within undisputed exclusive economic zones.
The United States has maintained a military presence in the Arctic since World War II. It was understood that the most efficient means to attack the United States by missile strike or bombing would come from the Eastern Hemisphere by crossing the polar cap. First-response stations were built along the northern Alaskan shore in response to this threat, with 27,000 active-duty military personnel, ski-equipped C-130 transport planes and nuclear submarines regularly patrolling the region. While it is unclear what the new strategy will call for regarding the expansion of military operations in the Arctic, the cost of adding new hardened-hull warships, an expanded communication network, a significant increase in search-and-rescue mission teams, and arrangements to negotiate new international agreements, will add significant pressure to a military budget already under strain from sequestration.
At the conference, Hagel emphasized that engagement and cooperation with Canada and the other Arctic nations – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia and Sweden – is a cornerstone of the U.S. strategy, as well as the need to maintain the region’s peace and stability.
“Ultimately, we envision a secure and stable Arctic, where all nations’ interests are safeguarded, and where all nations work together to address problems and resolve differences,” Hagel said.
The strategy calls for the preservation of the freedom of the seas through the Arctic region, a refocusing of military infrastructure and “private and public sector partners” toward improving efficiency and safety within the Arctic and a hardened position against the infringement of the United States’ and its allies’ national interests.
“As we monitor how changes in the Arctic influence geopolitical landscapes, we will balance our Arctic investments against the Department’s responsibilities and objectives around the world, while collaborating domestically and internationally to help develop effective solutions,” Hagel wrote in the foreword of the strategy.